Shallow-Water Coral Reefs Face Collapse by 2075

Source reports published 22 Oct 2026, 10:00 am – 23 Oct 2026, 4:18 am AEST

A UN assessment reveals that 96% of the world’s shallow-water coral reefs are at critical risk of collapse by 2075 due to global heating. They say that urgent action, including cuts to fossil fuel use and strengthened conservation efforts, is needed to prevent further ecosystem loss.

What happened

• An assessment by the United Nations nature advisers, coordinated by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), found that nearly all shallow-water coral reefs globally face a high risk of ecosystem collapse before 2075 due to global heating.
• Approximately 24% are already critically endangered, rising to 96% when considering the expected impacts of climate change.
• Reefs including Australia’s Great Barrier Reef, the Coral Triangle, and the Mesoamerican Reef System are particularly vulnerable.
• The assessment highlighted that overfishing, pollution, coastal development, and global heating have caused declines in reef ecosystems over the past 50 years.
• Marine heatwaves, such as the event in Western Australia that killed corals across 1,500 kilometers, exacerbate the problem by causing coral bleaching.
• Dr. Mishal Gudka, research director at CORDIO East Africa, stated the findings are ‘alarming, but certainly not hopeless’ and call for ‘a wake-up call’ and ‘a call to action’.
• IUCN Director General Grethel Aguilar emphasized that decisive action is needed to tackle climate change and halt ocean warming, advocating for ambitious emissions reductions and investment in resilient coastal ecosystems.

Original reporting

• Guardian: Almost every shallow-water coral reef on the planet faces ecosystem collapse by 2075, UN advisors say
  2026-10-22T00:00:00+00:00
• Deutsche Welle: 96% of world's coral reefs face critical risk of collapse
  2026-10-22T18:18:15.840000+00:00