Ryanair Predicts Record Rise in European Air Fares

Source reports published 20 Oct 2026, 10:00 am – 21 Oct 2026, 10:39 am AEST

Ryanair’s CEO, Michael O’Leary, forecasts a potential 20% increase in European airfares by 2027 due to rising jet fuel costs exacerbated by the Middle East conflict. Many airlines lack sufficient hedging to mitigate these price increases.

What happened

• Ryanair’s chief executive, Michael O’Leary, stated that European airfares could rise by as much as 20% in 2027.
• He attributed this forecast to soaring jet fuel prices, driven by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, which has disrupted fuel supplies.
• Many European airlines, including Ryanair, have not secured significant hedging contracts to protect against these rising costs.
• O’Leary indicated that Ryanair is currently unhedged for 85% of its fuel needs for 2027, while spot rates are double the level of its hedging contract at $85 a barrel.
• EasyJet reported a £105m annual rise in fuel costs and has reduced its winter schedule by 700,000 seats.
• Fuel hedging positions, implemented since the start of the Iran war, are beginning to unwind, forcing airlines to purchase a larger proportion of their jet fuel at market rates.
• Jet fuel prices have increased by 113% to $192 a barrel since the beginning of 2026, more than double the increase in crude oil costs.
• Ryanair has already cut 20 routes and over one million seats from its Belgium schedule for the winter, aiming to reduce its fuel bill by up to £84 million.
• The Irish firm is facing an enormous cost challenge regardless of the conflict’s resolution, with kerosene prices potentially remaining high for a year.

Original reporting

• Guardian: European air fares could rise by as much as 20% in 2027, Ryanair boss predicts
  2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00
• GB News: Ryanair chief warns Europe faces 'biggest increase in airfares in history'
  2026-10-21T00:39:01+00:00